天气预报和简易方法

懒猴航海

天气预报和简易方法
船舶在海上航行或海上和入海口锚泊时，每天定时地收到沿岸国的气象中心为海上船舶发布的海上天气预报（Weather Report）,警报（Warning）和气象传真图，船舶驾驶员收到以后，应及时阅读和分析，能充分掌握船舶周围环境和航线上的天气和海况的演变情况，有助于进一步保障航行安全，并提高船舶在海上的营运和经济效益，保护好海上环境。为此，本节着重介绍天气报告和警报。
一 . 海岸电台（NAVTEX台）及其负责海域
现在世界各国都按照国际海事组织（IMO）和世界气象组织（WMO）所划定的海区范围，由指定的海岸无线电台（Coast RadioStation）广播海上天气报告和警报，即所谓的NAVTEX。www.landho.cn
我国在大连，上海，广州，香港，基隆，花莲和高雄等地设有海岸电台，每天定时用中文或英文明码电报向国内外海上船舶转发当地气象台制作的海上天气报告和警报。大连海岸电台[XSZ]分别用中文或英文播发大风警告，天气形势，24小时海区天气预报，发射的方式为AIA或FIB；上海海岸电台[XSG]分别用中文或英文播发风暴警告和大风警报，东亚天气形势摘要，24h海区和上海港天气预报，一般发射方式AIA或FIB；广州[XSQ]分别用中文或英文播发风暴警报和热带风暴警告，24h海区天气预报，一般发射方式AIA和FIB；香港[VRX]，用AIA和FIB的发射方式用英文播发风暴警告和一般天气形势（包括西北太平洋地区气旋的活动情况），24h海区天气预报。

图12.1大连海岸电台责任范围

图12.2上海海岸电台责任范围

图12.3广州海岸电台责任范围

图12.1，12.2，12.3所示分别是大连、上海和广州海岸电台所负责的海上天气报告和警报的责任海区范围。中国香港特别行政区海岸电台的海上天气报告和警报的责任海区包括：香港（HONGKONG）、广东（GUANGDONG）、东沙群岛（DONGSHA PRATS）、台湾海峡（TAIWAN STRAIT）、台湾省北部（NORTH TAIWAN）、台湾省东部（EAST TAIWAN）、琉球群岛（RYUKYU）、舟山（ZHOUSHAN）、西沙群岛（XISHA PARTS）、巴士海峡（BASHI STRAIT）、巴林塘海峡（BALINTANG）、黄岩岛（HUANGYAN,SCARBOROUGH），民都洛（MINDORO）、南沙群岛（NANSHI）、华烈拉（VARELLA）、岘港（DANANG）、北部湾（BEIBUWAN,TONKIN）等。中国台湾省的基隆待、花莲、高雄的海岸电台天气报告和警告的责任范围为台湾省近海，台湾海峡，巴士海峡和东海海域。

图12.4为日本东京气象中心气象报告范围

图12.4为日本东京气象中心天气报告范围，范围在A内为一般警报，范围在B内为紧急警报。世界其它海岸电台的负责区域，广播时间，使用频率等可查阅每年出版的无线电信号表第3卷（ADMIRALTY
LIST
OF
RADIO
SIGNALS
Volume 3）。
天气预报和警报除通过海岸电台转发以外，还通过NAVTEX和传真转发。根据IMO，1988年10月通过的SOLAS公约修正案第四章要求，每一公约船自1993年8月1日起配备GMDSS，通过GMDSS接收航行警告、气象预报和其他各种紧急信息，以保证航行安全。此外在港口国附近海区航行，船舶还可以通过无线电广播、气象传真、电视电话、VHF、国际信号旗和报纸等多种方式获取天气报告和各类警报。另外还可以通过互联网来获得气象报告、警报或各类海岸资料，如可以查阅世界气象组织的网页，网址为：http://wmo.ch/；中国气象局主页网址为：http://www.CMA.Gov.cn/。www.landho.cn
二.
天气报告的阅读和阅读时的注意事项
1.
天气报告的内容
各沿岸国的海岸电台根据WMO所规定的格式和内容定时地向沿海海域的商船和渔船编发相应的报文，完整的报文有十部分组成，而发给商船的完整的报文一般只有三部分内容，（沿岸船舶可根据具体需要来接收）。即：
第一部分：为警报，其包括大风、风暴、热带气旋和浓雾警报等；
第二部分：为天气形势摘要。其包括高压、低压、热带气旋等天气系统的位置，强度移向和移动速度，锋线的起始点和终点位置及其移动方向和锋的性质等；
第三部分：为海区天气预报，其内容包括天气状况、天气现象、风向、风力和浪级等。
2.
阅读天气报告和警报的注意事项
1)阅读天气报告时应注意广播台的名称、广播时间、播发区域、预报的有效时间（世界时还是地方时）和受重要天气系统影响的海域。了解不同海岸电台所播发报文的习惯用法、风格和常用缩略语，并注意积累经验。
2)应明确时间用语（地方时）的含义
白天：08~20时
夜间：20~08时
早晨：05~08时
傍晚：18~20时
上午：08~12时
下午：12~18时
中午：11~14时
上半夜：20~24时
半夜：23~03时
下半夜：00~05时
3）应明确天气状况（SkyCondition）用语含义
晴天（Clear sky）：总云量为0~2，用
表示；
少云（Partly cloudy）：总云量为3~5，用
表示；
多云（Cloudy）：总云量6~8或高云量8~10，用
表示；
阴天（Overcast）：总云量（一般以中、低云）9~10，用
表示；

3.
天气报的应用
每天通过海岸电台和传真等收到天气报告以后，船舶驾驶员应尽快阅读和分析但阅读应注意二个问题：
1)目前船舶所在海域处于哪种性质的天气系统所控制，并确定处于该天气系统的哪个部位，分析该天气系统的强度大小，位置以及移动的情况；
2)根据天气报告内容分析和预报出12小时、24小时本船的推算船位的海域受何天气系统和处在该天气系统的何部位所控制，然后再制作出航线的改变或抛锚避风等。
航海上经常根据天气形势摘要报告的内容，将各天气系统的位置，强度和锋面绘制在一张空白天气图或海图上，并适当地画出几条等压线，这种方法称为点绘分析法，然后再把大风区用红色笔标出，大雨区用绿色笔标出，浓雾区用棕色笔标出，就得到一张简易的天气图。这种方法虽然不如传真天气图那么精确，但航海驾驶员用得很多，在此基础上再使用外推法，预报6~24小时该天气系统的移动位置。这样就能确定船舶处在的周围海域的天气和海况。
三.
报文实例
1.
警报
例1：台风警报[EGC信息，日东气象厅（JAPAN METEOROGICAL AGENCY）播发]
EGC：

536
2001/09/25
12：58：04
URGENT
PAN
PAN
THISTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IS
ISSUED
FOR
THE
NORTH
OF EQUATOR
OF
METAREA
XI (PDR).
WARN ING
251200.
WARN ING
V A L I D 261200.
WARN ING
I S
UPDATED
EVERY
6
HOURS.
TYPH OON
W A R N I NG.
TYPHOON
0119
LEK I MA (0119)
965
H PA
AT
21.2 N
121.9 E
BASHI
CHANNEL
MOVING
NORTHWEST
SLOWLY.
POS I T I ON
GOOD.
MAX
W I N DS
65
KNOTS
NEAR
CENTER.
RAD I US
OF
OVER
50
KNOT
W I NDS
70
M I LES.
RAD I US
OF
OVER
30
KNOT
W I NDS
180
M I LES.
FORECAST
POSITION
FOR 261200 UTC
AT
22.4N
1 20.6E
W I TH
90 MI LE

RADIUS
OF
70
PERCENT
PRO BAB I LITY
C I RC LE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EX T EN DED
OUTLOOK.
FORECAST
POSITION
FOR
271200UTC AT 23.5N
119.5E
WITH
180
MIKLE
RADIUS OF
70HPA, MAX
WINDS
60
KNOTS
NEAR
CENTER.
975
HPA,
MAX
WINDS
60
KNOTS
NEAR
CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 25.0N119.5E WITH 290 MILE
RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT
PROBABILITY
CIRCLE.


例2.
热带气旋警报（香港台播报）
HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNINGINFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNINGSLEKIMA(0119):
HURRICANERADIUS 30NM;
STORM RADIUS60NM;
GALE
RADIUS 150NM OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT,120NM ELSEWHERE.
GALES OVEREAST CHINA SEA(ECS) AND SEASNEAR TAIWAN.
SYNOPSIS(250000 GMT) AND 24-HOUR FORECASTAT 250000 GMT,
TYPHOON LEKIMA WITH CEVTRAL P 970 HPAAND MAX WINDS 65 KT WAS CENTERED WITHIN 30NM OF 20.4N 121.9E AND IS FORECAST TOMOVE SLOWLY FOR NEXT 24 HRS.
FORECASTPOSITION
AT
260000 GMT 21.0N 121.0E
SIGNIFICANT
SWELL
HIGH
SEAS
SEAS OVER 6M, 10M,14M OVER GALE, STORM ANDHURRICANE
WARNING AREAS.
SWELL E TO NE 3M OVER ECS; N TO NE 4-5M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN,LUZON STRAIT AND NE PART OFSCS; S TO SE 4M OVERSEAS EAST OF
LUZON STRAIT.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVEREWEATHER
FREQUENT HEAVY SSQUALLY SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM FROM CENTRE OF LEKIMA.
REDUCEDVISIBILITY
VISDOWN TO 500M IN SQ SH.

例3．台风警报（上海台播发）
●
ZCZCWX
●
SHAI
OBSY
SYNOPTIC
SITUATION
060000Z = TYPHOON
KROSA
0120 (0120)
●
960HPA
AT 21.4N 135.8E MOVING
NW
8 KTS
MAX
WINDS
●
80KTS
NEAR CENTER
LOW 1013HPA
AT
42N 142E
MOVING NE
●
10KTS
WITH
COLD FRONT FROM CENTER PASSING 35N 143ETO 28N 135E AND
WARM FRONT FROM CENTER TO 42N
149E COLD FRONT FROM 55N 120E PASSING
45N 116E TO40N105E
●
HIGH1029HPA
AT
43N 128E
MOVING
ENE
5KTS
STOP
●
24HOUR
WEATHER
FORCAST
FROM
060800Z
●
BOHAI
SEA
OVERCAST
S
TO
SE WINDS
BACKING
TO
SE
WINDS
AT
MIDNIGHT
FORCE
4
TO 5
SEA
SLIGHT
●
BOHAI
STRAITS
AND
NORTH
HUANGHAI SEACLOUDY
●
BECOMING
OVERCAST
E T O
SE
WINDS
FORCE
4 TO
5
●
SEA
SLIGHT
CENTRAL
HUANGHAI
●
SEA CLOUDY BECOMING OVERCAST WITH LOCAL SHOWER E TOSE WINDS
FORCE
5
TO
6
SEA
MDERATE
●

SOUTH
HUANGHAI
SEA
AND
NORTH
DONGHAI SE
OVERCAST
●
BECOMING
OVERCAST
WITH
LOCAL
SHOWER
NE
TO
E
WINDS
●
FORCE
5TO
6
SEA
MODERATE

●
SOUTH
DONGHAISEA AND NORTH TAIWAN OVERCAST BECOMING OVERCAST WITH
SHOWER
NE
WINDS
FORCE
5
TO
6
SEA
MODERATE
●

SHANGHAI
HARBOUR
OVERCAST
BECOMING
OVERCAST
WITH

●
SHOWER
ELY WINDS
FORCE
3
TO
4
SEA
RIPPLES
●
TAIWAN
STRAITS
AND
EAST
TAIWAN
OVERCAST
WITH
LOCAL

●
SHOWER
NE
WINDS
FORCE
5
TO
6
SEA
MODERATE
●

CHEJU
AND
NAGASAKI
CLOUDY
BECOMING
OVERCAST
WITH
LOCAL
●
SHOWER
NE
WINDS
FORCE
5
TO
6
INCREASING
TO 6 TO 7
●
IN THE
AFTER
MIDNIGHT
SEA
MODERATE
BECOMING
SEA
ROUGH

●
KAGOSHIMA
AND
RYUKYU
OVERCAST
WITH
LOCAL SHOWER NE WINDS FORCE
6
TO
7
INCREASING
TO 7 TO 8
●
TOMORROW
SEA
ROUGH
BECOMING
SEA
VERY
ROUGH STOP
●
NNNN
●
2010 SHANGHAIRDO
●
01-10-06 16:54
●
DE XSG VA


2.
天气报告

例1.
CEGC信息，日本气象厅和香港气象服务机构提供的海区气象警报和预报
EGC:
4552001/09/24 02:28:13
SAFETY
SECURITE.
THIS WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH OF EQUATOR OF METAREA
XI(POR) BYJMA.
WARNING AND SUMMARY 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW994 HPA AT 56N 147E SEA OF OKHOTSKMOVING NORTHNORTHEST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 56N 147E TO 57N 152E.
WARM FRONT FROM 57N 152E TO 56N 156E 54N 162E.
COLD FRONT FROM 57N 152E TO 53N 150E 50N 146E 46N 140E 43N 134E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 43N 134E TO 42N 128E40N 124E 39N 120E
36N 114E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW
SOUTHEASTSEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE AND NEAR FRONT.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW1012 HPA AT 41N 163E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST NORTHEAST 20KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WAGTERSBOUNDED BY 60N 175E, 60N 180E ,52N 180E ,56N 175E ,60N 175E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOGOBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 44N 146E ,51N 157E ,60N 164E ,60N180E,48N 180E ,42N 157E ,44N 146E.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1020HPA
AT 37N 140E
ALMOST
STATIONARY.
HIGH 1026HPA
AT 45N 177E
EAST 20 KT.
HIGH 1026HPA
AT 35N 147W EAST 20 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 0118FRANCISCO (0118) 945 HPA AT 28.4N 147.9E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONEWARNING.
SEVERETROPICAL STORM 0119 LEKIMA (0119) 975 HPA AT 19.8N 121.6E :
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 148E TO 36N 154E, 40N 161E ,41N 163E ,42N 170E , 40N180E, 40N 172W.
HONG KONGMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING WARNING
INFORMATION
FOR
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING
STS LEKIMA (0119):
STORM RADIUS60 NM.
GALE RADIUS120NM OVER WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60NM ELSEWHERE.
GALES OVEREAST CHINA SEA (ECS) ANDSEAS NEAR TAIWAN.
SYNOPSIS(240000 GMT) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST AT 240000 GMT, LEKIMA WITH CENTRAL P 975 HPAAND MAX WINDS 60 KTWAS CENTERED WITHIN 60 NM OF 19.6N 121.6E AND IS FOST TOMOVEWNW AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HRS.
FORECASTPOSITION AT 250000 GMT 20.2N 120.4E.
SIGNIFICANTSWELL/HIGH SEAS
SEAS OVER 6M AND 10M OVER GALE AND STORM WARNING AREAS.

SWELL E TO NE 3M OVER ECS; N TO NE 4-5M OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN, LUZON
STRAIT AND NE PART OF SCS; S TO SE 4M OVER SEAS EAST OF LUZON STRAIT.
THUNDERSTORMS/SEVEREWEATHER FREQUENT HEAVY SQUALLY(SQ) SHOWERS(SH) AND THUNDER STORMS(TS)
WITHIN 240 NM FROM CENTRE OF LEKIMA ANDSEAS EAST OF TAIWAN.
REDUCED VISIBILITY
VIS DOWN TO 500MIN SQ SH AND TS.


例2.
上海台播发的天气报告
lokata

navtex
2
ZCZC QE26
240240 UTC SEP2001
WX XSG
SHAI OBSYSYNOPTIC SITUATION 231800Z TYPHOON FRANCISCO 0118(0118)
950 HPA AT27.3N 147.6E MOVING
NLY 11KTS MAXWINDS
90 KTS NEARCENTER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LEKIMA 0119(0119)
985HPA AT19.5N 121.7E MOVING NW SLOWLY MAX WINDS 50KTS
NEAR CENTER
COLD FRONTFROM 52N 142E PASSING 43N 130E 39N 117E35N 109E TO 33N 100E
LOW 1009HPA AT30N 107E MOVING ELY 8 KTS
HIGH 1024HPA AT 36N 137E MOVING ENE SLOWLY
HIGH 1032HPAAT 47N 98E MOVING ESE 10KTS
HIGH 1026HPAAT 39N 100E MOVING ESE 12KTS STOP 24 HOUR WEATHER FORECAST FROM 240200Z
BOHAI SEABOHAI STRAITS AND NORTH HUANGHAI SEA OVERCAST WITH SHOWER N TO NE WINDS FORCE 5TO 6 INCREASING TO 6 TO 7 IN THEAFTERNOON SEA MODERATE BECOMING SEA ROUGH CENTRAL HUANGHAI SEA OVERCAST WITHSHOWER N TO NE WINDS FORCE
5 TO 6INCREASING TO 6 IN THEEVENING
SEA MODERATE BECOMING SEAMODERATE TO ROUGH SOUTH
HUANGHAI SEAAND NORTH DONGHAI SEA CLOUDY BECOMING OVERCAST WITH LOCAL SHOWER ELY WINDSFORCE 5 TO 6 BECOMING NE WINDS FORCE 6 TO 7 TONIGHT SEA MODERATE BECOMING SEAROUGH SOUTH
DONGHAI SEA OVERCASTWITH LOCAL SHOWER N TO NE WINDS FORCE 6 TO 7 SEA ROUGH
NORTH TAIWAN OVERCASTWITH SHOWER N TO NE WINDS FORCE 6 TO 7 INCREASING TO 7 TO 8 TONIGHT SEA ROUGH BECOMINGSEA VERY ROUGH

SHANGHAI HARBOUR CLOUDY BECOMING
OVERCAST WITH LOCAL SHOWER ELY WINDSBACKING TO NE WINDS TONIGHT FORCE 4 TO 5 SEA RIPPLES
INSIDE HARBOUR ELY WINDS FORCE 4 TO 5BECOMING
NE WINDS FORCE 4 TO 5 GUST6 TONIGHT SEA RIPPLES OUTSIDE
HARBOUR TAIWANSTRAITS AND EASTTAIWAN OVERCAST WITH THUNDERSTORM NE WINDS FORCE 7 TO 8INCREASING TO8 TO 10 TONIGHT SEA VERY ROUGH BECOMING SEA HIGH SEAS CHEJUOVERCAST WITH LOCAL SHOWER ELY WINDS FORCE 5 TO 6 BECOMING NE WINDS FORCE 6TONIGHT SEA MODERATE BECOMING
SEA
MODERATE
TO ROUGH

NAGASAKIAND KAGOSHIMAOVERCAST WITH LOCAL SHOWER NE TO E WINDS FORCE 6 TO 7 SEA ROUGH RYUKYU OVERCASTWITH LOCALSHOWER E
3.
大风警报：本例是澳洲达尔文台通过传真所发的大风警报：
DARWIN RSMC
CURRENT WARNINGS SUMMARY
FOR AREA:
25ºN~25ºS
70ºE~180ºE
12 JANUARY 1997 0000Z
1）
FORM PERTH ISSUEDJ 112300Z
GALE WARNING
TROPICAL LOW NEAR: 20.0ºS
90.5ºE AT 112200Z
MOVEMENT: SW AT06 KNOTS
FORECAST: LOWCOULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHINTHE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS
2）
FROM TOKYO ISSUED 111200Z.
ADVICE OF GALESVALID UNTIL 121200Z
NE WINDS 30/35KNOTS PREVAILING
OVER WATERSBOUNDED BY 23ºN
121ºE，20º N 130ºE，13ºN 130ºE，10ºN 119ºE，08ºN 108ºE，19ºN 109ºE，23ºN
121ºE
STORM WARNING LOW CENTER FIVE THREE PT ZERO NORTH ONE SIX EIGHT PT FIVE EAST AT 130000ZFORECAST TO MOVE 045 DEG. 15~20KTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KTS SOUTHQUADRANT RADIUS OF 50 KTS WINDS 240 NM TO 450 NM SOUTH QUADRNT RADIUSJ OF 30KTS WINDS OVER WATER AREAS 600 NM SEAS 12 TO 18 FT EXCEPT 20 TO 25 FT SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
FORECAST POSIT131200Z 55.6N 174.6E MAX WINDS 50 KTS FORECAST POSIT 140000Z 57.2N 180.0E MAXWINDS 45 KTS
131200Z 1) GALEWARNING LOW CENTER FORECAST NEAR FIVE THREE PT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO REMAINQUSAISTATIONARY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KTS SOUTH QUADRANT RADIUS OF 30 KTSWINDS OVER WATER AREAS 600 MILES SEAS UP TO 24 FT SOUTH QUADRNT.
FORECAST DOSIT140000Z 52.0N 172.0E MAX WINDS 45 KTS FORECAST POSIT 141200Z 53.0N
172.0E MAX WINDS 40 KTS
2) GLAE WARNING WINDS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH30 TO 40 KTS IN SEA OF JAPAN NORTH OF 40N SEA 8 TO 10 FT OF 30 KTS WINDS OVER WATER AREAS 600 MILES SEAUP TO 24 FT SOUTH QUADRANT

AREA STATIONARY 1975-A,SEAS 12 FT OR GRTR WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 42NTO 58N AND 160E TO 168E MAX SEA THIS AREA 20 FTNEAR 47N 170E B.SEAS 12 FTOR GRTR WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 45N TO 55N AND 168W TO 150W MAX SEAS THIS AREA 14 FT NEAR 53N 150 W C.
SEAS 12 FT OR GRTR WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 50N TO 57N AND150W TO 140W MAX SEAS THIS AREA 15 FTNEAR 54N 148W D.
SEAS 12 FT OR GRTS WITHIN 200NM EITHER SIDEOR A LINE FROM 35N 150W TO 20N 137W MAX SEAS THIS AREA 15 FT NEAR 25N 142F

WEBBEW

很有用，非常感谢，顶顶顶！